Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x81f3…1f2a
sports · 318 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$2,948 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,325 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$261
Realized−$3,325
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses154 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions8
Markets (closed)311 / 318
History coverage118d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 8 History 311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$390
7 days+$36
14 days−$1,116
30 days−$880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $66 +$17 (+34%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 48¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $21 −$3 (-14%)
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth James Duckworth 72¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Ben Shelton 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Under 51¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) Jodar 60¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Under 53¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $495 $0 −$495 (-100%)
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Auburn Tigers 23¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Titouan Droguet 33¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Yale Bulldogs (-8.5) Yale Bulldogs 56¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Morgan State Bears (-2.5) Morgan State Bears 55¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Grigor Dimitrov 52¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Tuco Tokkos 39¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-6.5) George Washington Revolutionaries 52¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 53¢ $495 $0 −$495 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $0 $0 —%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 14 $99 −$10 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $198 −$9 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $198 +$190 +96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $495 −$495 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $346 −$346 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $99 +$112 +113%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $143 +$169 +119%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $129 +$101 +78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$84 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +45%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $198 +$190 +96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $198 −$198 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $495 +$316 +64%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $211 +$197 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $212 −$210 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $5 +$10 +188%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $49 +$27 +54%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $1 $0 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $49 −$4 -7%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $50 −$29 -59%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $15 −$5 -36%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Humbert vs. Ymer: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 07 $49 +$54 +108%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $252 +$198 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 07 $49 +$13 +27%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $49 +$32 +64%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $297 −$297 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $50 +$4 +8%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $67 +$59 +89%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $25 +$20 +79%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $50 +$35 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $297 −$297 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mi Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 05 $5 +$1 +23%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $514 +$304 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $10 +$6 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$2,768
other 4% −$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $24 1h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $89 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $189 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $198 18h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 48¢ $49 20h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 48¢ $20 20h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 48¢ $4 20h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 48¢ $20 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $198 21h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 48¢ $6 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $495 22h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $344 32h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $2 32h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $143 47h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 66¢ $25 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $50 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.5% -0.9% 48% 48% -8.7%
≤30d 123 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 44% -14.5%
≤90d 227 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 48% -16.4%
all 311 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 48% -18.2%
10% -17.6% 47% -26.0%
15% -25.6% 44% -33.1%
20% -32.9% 41% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.73 · official $261.04 (match) · 954 history records