Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f4…b5c5 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$6
other 21% $0
weather 0% −$10
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.4% -14.4% 14% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 22 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 27 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 7% -10.1%
all 36 +4.3% -5.6% 47% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 8% -10.7%
10% -14.6% 8% -19.2%
15% -22.9% 6% -27.0%
20% -30.5% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage534d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 −$10 -18%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $111 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $36 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $40 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 −$2 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 +$3 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $21 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $35 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $431 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $351 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $288 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $9 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $15 +$4 +23%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ole Miss win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
North Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast Feb 24 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or higher on February 13? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Jan 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Dec 31 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $24 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 50¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 50¢ $22 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $19 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $6 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 37¢ $25 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.36 · official $26.50 (match) · 134 history records