Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

81 0x81f4…d77e sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$118 (-16%) realized −$121 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$123per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+31.5%	+19.0%	50%	50%	+21.4%
≤30d	4	+31.5%	+19.0%	50%	50%	+21.4%
≤90d	5	+5.2%	-4.8%	40%	40%	-5.2%
all	5	+5.2%	-4.8%	40%	40%	-5.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	40%	-5.2%
10%	-13.9%	40%	-14.3%
15%	-22.2%	40%	-22.6%
20%	-29.9%	40%	-30.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$74 vs −$42 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.19 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage

Net worth$237

Realized−$121

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage89d

Avg bet$123

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	45¢	46¢	$235	$237	+$3 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 19	$45	−$6	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 19	$104	+$96	+93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner	Jun 19	$142	−$10	-7%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$101	+$53	+52%
Will PSV win on 2026-03-22?	Mar 22	$110	−$110	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$239	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$39	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$200	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$45	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$104	1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner	SELL LGD Gaming	50¢	$132	1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner	BUY LGD Gaming	52¢	$132	1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner	BUY LGD Gaming	53¢	$10	1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$154	1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	65¢	$101	3h
Will PSV win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$110	89d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.29 · official $237.29 (match) · 11 history records