Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f4…8300 crypto 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,747 (-6%) realized −$1,764 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate75%53W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$1,218
sports 34% −$319
other 15% −$229
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 43% -19.2%
≤30d 7 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 43% -19.2%
≤90d 27 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 15% -17.5%
all 71 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 8% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 8% -15.1%
10% -22.0% 4% -23.3%
15% -29.5% 4% -30.7%
20% -36.4% 3% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$590) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$119 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,764
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses53 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage553d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 76¢ 100¢ $54 $71 +$17 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $47 −$17 -36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $68 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$12 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $35 −$13 -38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $456 −$247 -54%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $640 +$8 +1%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 26 $620 −$10 -2%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $380 −$50 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $395 +$5 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 25 $627 $0 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $510 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $570 +$10 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 25 $305 +$5 +2%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Apr 25 $780 −$280 -36%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Apr 24 $570 +$10 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 24 $590 −$30 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 23 $580 +$10 +2%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 22 $920 −$10 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $790 −$10 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $870 +$66 +8%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $1,056 $0 -0%
Shymkent: Dali Blanch vs Denis Yevseyev Apr 21 $32 +$17 +52%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 21 $747 −$36 -5%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on November 16? Apr 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Solana Up or Down on November 20? Nov 20 $994 −$843 -85%
XRP Up or Down on November 14? Nov 15 $983 +$11 +1%
XRP Up or Down on November 13? Nov 13 $969 +$14 +1%
XRP Up or Down on November 12? Nov 13 $350 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down on November 11? Nov 11 $942 +$24 +3%
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 1AM ET Nov 11 $574 +$12 +2%
Solana Up or Down on November 10? Nov 10 $1,011 +$32 +3%
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4AM ET Nov 10 $383 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 10 $89 +$11 +12%
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET Nov 04 $380 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11AM ET Oct 28 $364 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET Oct 27 $335 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4PM ET Oct 27 $325 +$10 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2PM ET Oct 26 $255 −$55 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 20? Oct 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 18 $800 +$1 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before 2025? Jan 01 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 01 $15 $0 +1%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 01 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 01 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 30¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 76¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 67¢ $93 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $68 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $34 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 87¢ $45 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 31¢ $6 5d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 22¢ $208 51d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 51d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 38¢ $112 51d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 51d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 52d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 52d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 51¢ $69 52d
Thunder vs. Suns SELL Thunder 81¢ $648 53d
Avalanche vs. Kings SELL Avalanche 61¢ $610 53d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 33¢ $330 53d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 80¢ $640 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 80¢ $400 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $146 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $19 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $91 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $4 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $8 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $128 54d
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant SELL Michelle Montague 79¢ $627 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.96 · official $70.96 (match) · 363 history records