Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f5…70af sports 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 224d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,695 (-2%) realized −$4,493 · open −$202
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%230W / 324L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$24,862
other 3% +$4,092
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -86.0% -87.3% 7% 7% -82.6%
≤30d 33 -62.1% -65.7% 18% 18% -68.9%
≤90d 48 -40.2% -45.9% 33% 33% -52.3%
all 554 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 39% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 38% -23.6%
15% -31.2% 37% -31.0%
20% -38.0% 35% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$780) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$472 vs −$415 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,493
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses230 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)554 / 555
History coverage224d ⚠
Avg bet$561
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 0¢ $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kia Tigers Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Mo Touré: 2+ shots Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 26 $151 −$151 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots Jun 26 $129 −$129 -100%
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun Jun 26 $167 −$167 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Francisco Comesana vs Lean Jun 26 $165 −$165 -100%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) Jun 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $164 −$164 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots Jun 26 $171 −$171 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots Jun 26 $259 −$259 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 26 $76 −$76 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Cobolli vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 26 $113 −$113 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 26 $146 −$146 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Simona Waltert Jun 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $159 −$159 -100%
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Jun 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Kai Havertz: 3+ shots Jun 25 $148 +$182 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $153 +$127 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $70 +$80 +116%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $59 +$40 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $108 +$105 +96%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $43 +$72 +165%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers May 05 $3 +$1 +32%
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) May 05 $8 +$4 +52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Julia Grabh May 05 $151 +$123 +81%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. SSG Landers May 05 $138 +$21 +15%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers May 05 $187 +$203 +108%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca May 04 $32 +$27 +86%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $216 +$184 +85%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 04 $36 −$36 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 May 04 $520 −$520 -100%
Bruins vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5 May 04 $481 −$481 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $300 +$200 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $105 +$33 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $186 +$114 +61%
Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Mar 31 $583 −$583 -100%
Flyers vs. Kings Mar 27 $280 −$280 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud Mar 27 $504 −$504 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $206 1h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY No 38¢ $4 24h
Kai Havertz: 3+ shots BUY No 44¢ $13 24h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY No 38¢ $39 24h
Kai Havertz: 3+ shots BUY No 44¢ $134 24h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY No 40¢ $3 25h
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots BUY Yes 49¢ $259 25h
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots BUY Yes 42¢ $171 25h
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots BUY No 40¢ $69 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $159 25h
Mo Touré: 2+ shots BUY Yes 34¢ $5 27h
Mo Touré: 2+ shots BUY Yes 24¢ $10 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $153 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $161 43h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $151 43h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY No 37¢ $33 46h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY No 42¢ $96 46h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 20¢ $33 5d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 23¢ $52 5d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 23¢ $7 5d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 23¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 61¢ $24 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 61¢ $122 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 52¢ $5 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $1 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $21 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $43 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 56¢ $5 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 64¢ $51 25d
Cobolli vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Under 56¢ $56 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.23 (match) · 3500 history records