Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81f6…6cca crypto 320 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%165W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$26
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -10.8% -19.3% 52% 52% -18.0%
≤30d 320 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 51% -16.4%
≤90d 320 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 51% -16.4%
all 320 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 51% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 51% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 51% -24.4%
15% -32.6% 47% -31.7%
20% -39.2% 41% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses165 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)320 / 320
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 320 Trades
no open positions (154 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 501 history records