Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x81f8…54f1 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$246 (+31%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$669
crypto 9% +$48
sports 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+80.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +99.8% +80.7% 75% 75% +89.6%
≤30d 8 +99.8% +80.7% 75% 75% +89.6%
≤90d 8 +99.8% +80.7% 75% 75% +89.6%
all 8 +99.8% +80.7% 75% 75% +89.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.7% 75% +89.6%
10% +63.4% 75% +71.4%
15% +47.6% 75% +54.9%
20% +33.2% 75% +39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$35 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.96 per $1 lost it wins $10.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $33 +$48 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 +$185 +226%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $57 +$58 +102%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $20 +$57 +280%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$106 +139%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $298 +$313 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $55.00 · 20 history records