Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
81 0x81fa…0b25 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+10%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$20
other 33% +$10
crypto 14% −$6
finance 5% +$2
tech 2% −$2
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +31.6% +19.1% 44% 40% +11.6%
≤30d 43 +31.6% +19.1% 44% 40% +11.6%
≤90d 43 +31.6% +19.1% 44% 40% +11.6%
all 43 +31.6% +19.1% 44% 40% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 40% +11.6%
10% +7.7% 37% +0.9%
15% -2.7% 30% -8.8%
20% -12.2% 28% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 52
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Spurs 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Under 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Amar Dedić: 1+ assists Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +241%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +382%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +164%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Australia vs. T Jun 14 $2 +$2 +147%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Wil Jun 14 $3 +$6 +184%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +191%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Amar Dedić: 1+ assists Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +982%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +74%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $13 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 4h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 13h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 13h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 AND Côte d'Ivoir BUY 30¢ $5 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoi BUY $3 15h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 BUY Under 97¢ $8 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 48¢ $8 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $1 24h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Australia vs. T BUY 40¢ $2 24h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.51 · official $7.52 (match) · 90 history records