Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

81 0x81fc…3670 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$2 (+9%) realized +$3 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+11.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+22.8%	+11.1%	100%	100%	+11.1%
≤30d	1	+22.8%	+11.1%	100%	100%	+11.1%
≤90d	1	+22.8%	+11.1%	100%	100%	+11.1%
all	1	+22.8%	+11.1%	100%	100%	+11.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.1%	100%	+11.1%
10%	+0.5%	100%	+0.5%
15%	-9.2%	0%	-9.2%
20%	-18.1%	0%	-18.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$12

Realized+$3

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	4¢	2¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-45%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$2	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	4¢	$2	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	4¢	$1	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	93¢	$12	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	75¢	$5	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	75¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.57 · official $11.57 (match) · 6 history records