Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81fd…57dd other 33 markets active 6d ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$2
other 16% −$35
crypto 16% +$23
economics 8% +$10
politics 1% −$13
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.5% -32.6% 50% 25% -8.4%
≤30d 4 -25.5% -32.6% 50% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 8 -42.2% -47.7% 38% 12% -13.6%
all 33 -20.2% -27.8% 55% 18% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 18% -9.9%
10% -34.7% 3% -18.5%
15% -41.0% 3% -26.4%
20% -46.8% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage531d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $177 +$34 +19%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 11 $133 +$10 +8%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$16 -76%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $44 −$23 -53%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $28 −$12 -42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $13 −$13 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 28 $113 +$17 +15%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 27 $6 −$4 -56%
Will Nansen launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 31 $100 +$11 +11%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 31 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $24 −$18 -75%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 25 $52 +$2 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $9 −$6 -67%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 30 $108 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 29 $13 −$7 -52%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? May 07 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? May 07 $23 +$5 +20%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Mar 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? Mar 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Base airdrop in 2024? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ripple hit in $4.00 in December? Mar 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Feb 28 $13 −$5 -40%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 28 $26 −$5 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 84¢ $177 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $144 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $21 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $44 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 43d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $28 67d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 84d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $133 109d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 109d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 140d
Will Nansen launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 140d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 168d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 168d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $113 168d
Will Nansen launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 168d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $111 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $89 199d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 199d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 234d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $54 234d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 234d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 246d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 246d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $100 290d
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $108 325d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY Yes 0¢ $6 325d
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio SELL Yes 0¢ $6 353d
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY Yes 0¢ $13 405d
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 460d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.00 · official $210.00 (match) · 142 history records