Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x81ff…3a62 other 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-5%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%141W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$79
crypto 27% −$24
world 8% +$2
tech 7% −$4
sports 5% +$9
politics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 62 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 2% -6.9%
all 154 -2.8% -12.1% 92% 6% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -14.6%
10% -20.5% 4% -22.7%
15% -28.2% 3% -30.2%
20% -35.2% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses141 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage546d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 27 $19 $0 +0%
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 27 $132 +$1 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $122 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $114 +$3 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $107 +$7 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $91 +$15 +17%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Apr 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $19 21h
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $132 35h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $153 2d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $122 27d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 30d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 98¢ $114 31d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $107 33d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 33d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 38d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $91 43d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 50d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 51d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $5 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 53d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 54d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 63d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY No 99¢ $5 65d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $3 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.38 · official $31.38 (match) · 316 history records