Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x81ff…81ea sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$5,063 (+34%) realized +$5,065 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,012
7 days−$1,012
14 days−$1,012
30 days−$1,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$3,738
sports 41% +$1,475
economics 1% −$131
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 +16.7% +5.6% 38% 38% -44.1%
all 26 +7.0% -3.2% 46% 46% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 46% +29.0%
10% -12.4% 35% +16.7%
15% -20.9% 31% +5.4%
20% -28.7% 27% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$684) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$655 vs −$200 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$2,966
Realized+$5,065
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage404d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $2,956 $2,966 +$10 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $1,012 $0 −$1,012 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs FURIA 26¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? Yes 50¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) Gilbert Burns 29¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,029 −$1,012 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $137 −$135 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 +$393 +388%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $177 +$35 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $88 −$86 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $107 +$241 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $198 +$352 +178%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 28 $500 −$355 -71%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $1,933 +$1,668 +86%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $997 +$367 +37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Nov 02 $490 −$490 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-01? Nov 02 $1,478 +$331 +22%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 23 $983 +$1,114 +113%
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch? Oct 23 $1,973 +$2,580 +131%
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Oct 12 $684 +$104 +15%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $305 +$678 +222%
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance) Jul 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jul 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $989 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $12 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,024 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2,011 32h
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $137 31d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $494 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $101 36d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 66¢ $213 37d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 38d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 54¢ $142 38d
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car BUY Gilbert Burns 29¢ $86 57d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY FURIA 26¢ $88 57d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca SELL Paulo Costa 100¢ $347 63d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 30¢ $107 63d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Charles Oliveira 100¢ $550 98d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $198 99d
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 19¢ $145 137d
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 67¢ $500 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 165d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 168d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 196d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,124 197d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,378 197d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 38¢ $478 197d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $555 198d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Makhachev 100¢ $1,364 210d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 73¢ $997 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,966.17 · official $2,966.17 (match) · 63 history records