Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8200…df37
other · 334 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$12,046 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,751 · open +$295
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$6,573
Realized+$11,751
Unrealized+$295
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses238 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)325 / 334
History coverage137d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 9 History 325 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$948
7 days+$948
14 days+$948
30 days−$1,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $155 −$144 -93%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $90 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $219 −$16 -7%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 13 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $746 +$114 +15%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 12 $4,768 +$990 +21%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 11 $949 −$139 -15%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $183 +$20 +11%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $654 +$103 +16%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $625 +$57 +9%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 10 $121 −$11 -9%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $104 −$77 -74%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 10 $1,234 +$226 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $7,746 −$178 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 17 $176 +$14 +8%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 17 $114 −$52 -45%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? May 17 $33 −$18 -53%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $4,083 −$1,660 -41%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? May 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $1,334 −$727 -54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 17 $1,831 −$292 -16%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? May 17 $142 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Tesla" or "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube vide May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 17 $110 −$7 -6%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 13 $108 +$796 +735%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 12 $72 −$71 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 11 $3,550 +$1,266 +36%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 11 $2,139 +$498 +23%
Will the Green Party win at least 800 council seat elections in the 20 May 08 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 20 May 08 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 20 May 08 $678 −$118 -17%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 29 $1,586 +$8 +0%
Will Juliana Stratton win the Illinois Democratic Senate Primary by be Apr 25 $2,900 +$121 +4%
Will Juliana Stratton win the Illinois Democratic Senate Primary by be Apr 20 $696 +$38 +5%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 15 $26 +$17 +64%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Apr 12 $12 +$30 +245%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $1,000 +$332 +33%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 12 $379 +$27 +7%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $107 +$36 +33%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 12 $1,534 +$290 +19%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? Apr 12 $264 −$264 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 53 million views on day 2 Apr 12 $889 −$889 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 Apr 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 Apr 12 $2,173 −$2,173 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 11 $2,087 −$38 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% +$1,465
politics 35% +$9,835
culture 2% +$437
sports 1% +$317
world 0% −$20
tech 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 79¢ $5 3m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 79¢ $10 3m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 85¢ $101 5m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 85¢ $101 8m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 83¢ $202 15m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 63¢ $28 20m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 63¢ $13 20m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 63¢ $9 20m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 63¢ $19 20m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 76¢ $7 58m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 75¢ $24 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $13 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 85¢ $80 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 75¢ $346 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 78¢ $136 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 78¢ $233 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 74¢ $101 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $9 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 89¢ $1,005 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $2 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 10¢ $105 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $6 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $2 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $5 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $31 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 93¢ $393 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 36% -4.7%
≤30d 24 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 21% -15.8%
≤90d 179 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 25% -7.0%
all 325 +4.5% -5.4% 73% 26% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 26% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 11% -14.0%
15% -22.7% 7% -22.3%
20% -30.3% 5% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,573.22 · official $6,573.23 (match) · 3001 history records