Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x8204…a53b other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$235 (-21%) realized −$234 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$162
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$186
crypto 27% −$33
other 16% −$1
economics 4% $0
world 4% −$23
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 17% -33.9%
all 16 -13.2% -21.5% 75% 6% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 6% -31.5%
10% -29.0% 6% -38.1%
15% -35.9% 6% -44.0%
20% -42.2% 6% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$97 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage176d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $165 −$162 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $171 −$168 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 20 $161 +$144 +90%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $300 −$33 -11%
Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 02 $21 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 06 $27 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.20 · official $124.20 (match) · 31 history records