Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
82 0x8204…58ef crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,062 (-10%) realized −$1,013 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,329per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 616d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$34
politics 47% −$1,028
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 5 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 0% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -20.8%
10% -21.1% 0% -28.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -35.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1,028 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$2,479
Realized−$1,013
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage616d
Avg bet$1,329
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1,099 $1,093 −$6 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $804 $801 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $625 $585 −$40 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,610 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $380 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $527 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $573 +$4 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $5,009 −$1,028 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $804 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $626 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,099 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $527 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $380 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,610 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $401 474d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $173 474d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 36¢ $602 603d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 36¢ $3,379 603d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 45¢ $5,009 615d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,479.04 · official $2,479.04 (match) · 15 history records