Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x8208…00bc crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$312 (-16%) realized −$456 · open +$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$153
other 34% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -23.0%
≤30d 11 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -23.0%
≤90d 11 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -23.0%
all 11 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 45% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 45% -23.0%
10% -35.2% 36% -30.4%
15% -41.5% 36% -37.1%
20% -47.2% 36% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$125 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$144
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 57¢ 84¢ $300 $444 +$144 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$159 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$164 +79%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $336 +$64 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $319 −$312 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $309 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $217 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $400 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 84¢ $336 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $319 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.91 · official $270.55 · 23 history records