Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x820b…d27a sports 968 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,887 (-4%) realized −$1,889 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%380W / 583L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$141
14 days−$206
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,655
crypto 6% −$304
other 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -25.7% -32.8% 28% 28% -28.8%
≤30d 164 -9.4% -18.0% 29% 27% -28.5%
≤90d 459 -11.8% -20.2% 30% 29% -21.0%
all 963 -4.6% -13.7% 39% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 39% -13.6%
10% -22.0% 37% -21.9%
15% -29.5% 36% -29.4%
20% -36.4% 34% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$36 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,889
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses380 / 583
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions1
Markets (closed)963 / 968
History coverage141d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 963 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $47 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $39 −$31 -79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $67 +$91 +136%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $19 +$100 +520%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $14 +$15 +104%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: INTZ vs EGO (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $9 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$7 +126%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $9 +$8 +84%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $6 +$7 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$8 +158%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $9 +$5 +59%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $10 −$8 -88%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 +$11 +209%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 +$39 +254%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$10 +154%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $52 −$25 -48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $20 +$43 +216%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $8 +$41 +543%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 19¢ $10 7h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 29¢ $19 7h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $57 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 43¢ $71 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $157 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $8 9h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Guido Justo 41¢ $8 9h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 48¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $19 9h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $29 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $23 10h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 99¢ $120 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $10 11h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 14¢ $4 12h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 16¢ $16 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $29 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $14 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 87¢ $14 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 57¢ $9 16h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 26¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $13 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $6 16h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 33¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 25¢ $6 20h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 35¢ $11 20h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 56¢ $17 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $12 33h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Juan Estevez 100¢ $12 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.87 · official $49.87 (match) · 2655 history records