Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x820d…2ed2 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
other 32% −$1
crypto 13% −$1
politics 8% +$1
sports 6% $0
tech 4% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 50 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 4% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage477d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $71 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $103 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $18 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 21 $1 $0 -45%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will X buy TikTok? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $8 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $2 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 08 $2 $0 +25%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top Champions League scorer? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 06 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $24 18m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 18m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $37 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $10 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 22h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $34 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $15 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $19 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $28 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.02 (match) · 169 history records