Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8216…6c5b
crypto · 33 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$6,219 -58%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,218 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$6,218
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage711d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $471 $0 −$471 (-100%)
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? No 58¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $1,015 $0 −$1,015 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration? No 1¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $515 $0 −$515 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on August 27? Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 12PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $288 $0 −$288 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? Sep 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 09 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET Aug 27 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET Aug 27 $158 −$126 -79%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 1PM ET Aug 27 $73 +$23 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 27? Aug 27 $105 −$5 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 12PM ET Aug 27 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $471 −$471 -100%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 07 $2,230 −$903 -40%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 06 $362 +$57 +16%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Jan 06 $515 −$515 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 06 $105 +$30 +29%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15? Jan 06 $1,007 +$242 +24%
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration? Jan 06 $74 −$67 -91%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Jan 06 $396 +$93 +23%
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? Jan 06 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 06 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 06 $140 +$85 +60%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Jan 06 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Austria win the 2024 Euros? Jan 06 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? Jan 06 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jan 06 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 06 $301 +$23 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$2,111
politics 28% −$3,030
other 11% −$1,078
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 1¢ $0 31m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 34m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 3¢ $13 43m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 1¢ $2 50m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 8¢ $5 1h
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? BUY Yes 34¢ $75 276d
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? BUY No 58¢ $76 276d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 289d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 289d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.7% +4.7% 100% 50% +7.2%
≤30d 2 +15.7% +4.7% 100% 50% +7.2%
≤90d 2 +15.7% +4.7% 100% 50% +7.2%
all 28 -52.3% -56.9% 36% 25% -69.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 25% -69.6%
10% -61.0% 21% -72.5%
15% -64.8% 4% -75.2%
20% -68.2% 4% -77.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.20 · official $46.20 (match) · 232 history records