Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
82 0x8217…df9e crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (325 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%46W / 31L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day325.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (325 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 53% +4.1%
≤30d 77 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 53% +4.1%
≤90d 77 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 53% +4.1%
all 77 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 53% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover325.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 53% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 51% -5.9%
15% -10.3% 34% -15.0%
20% -19.1% 21% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$53 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses46 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day325.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $93 −$21 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $278 +$102 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $668 +$292 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $584 +$540 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $917 +$443 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $240 −$236 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $225 −$222 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$26 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $86 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $79 +$57 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $120 +$52 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$34 +1567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $109 +$35 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $164 +$108 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $124 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $85 +$23 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $90 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $178 +$366 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $862 +$206 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $71 +$37 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $358 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $140 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $64 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $90 −$87 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$20 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $84 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $111 −$39 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $28 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $117 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $106 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records