Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8218…7e5e sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-7%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$5
other 26% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -17.5%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -17.5%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -17.5%
all 14 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 57% -17.5%
10% -18.6% 57% -25.4%
15% -26.5% 57% -32.6%
20% -33.7% 36% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $28 $25 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $7 +$5 +65%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $7 +$5 +67%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 +$9 +134%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $7 +$4 +52%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$6 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 +$7 +140%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 −$20 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $42 +$18 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 21h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $7 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $7 25h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $21 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.31 · official $25.31 (match) · 24 history records