Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x821d…3d9e other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 39L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$20
world 18% $0
politics 18% −$2
sports 13% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
all 53 +1.6% -8.1% 26% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 2% -8.3%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage306d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $16 +$21 +127%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $37 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $33 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $4 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 33m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 33m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $55 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $14 7h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $42 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $55 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $61 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $37 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records