Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
82 0x8224…7384 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized −$290 · open +$344
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$828
7 days+$232
14 days+$232
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,108
politics 22% −$532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -28.2% -35.0% 38% 38% -0.2%
≤30d 8 -28.2% -35.0% 38% 38% -0.2%
≤90d 8 -28.2% -35.0% 38% 38% -0.2%
all 8 -28.2% -35.0% 38% 38% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 38% -0.2%
10% -41.2% 38% -9.7%
15% -46.9% 38% -18.5%
20% -52.1% 25% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$182 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$344
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage10d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 37¢ 100¢ $200 $544 +$344 (+172%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $270 +$325 +121%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $173 −$170 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $559 +$601 +108%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $142 −$142 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $495 +$214 +43%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $551 −$532 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.50 · official $543.50 (match) · 18 history records