Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8226…1289
world · 42 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$45 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$44 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage289d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $69 +$40 +58%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Sep 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $13 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $36 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $29 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$43
other 17% +$1
politics 17% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $74 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $77 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $5 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $81 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $4 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $70 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $7 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $25 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $40 46h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $73 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $72 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $21 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 10% -2.9%
≤30d 12 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 8% -3.6%
≤90d 12 +5.5% -4.6% 58% 8% -3.6%
all 41 +1.7% -8.0% 49% 2% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -6.5%
10% -16.8% 2% -15.5%
15% -24.8% 2% -23.6%
20% -32.2% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.13 · official $75.14 (match) · 143 history records