Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8226…7a58
other · 479 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$48 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$68 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$155
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses401 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)473 / 479
History coverage180d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 6 History 473 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$122
14 days−$119
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 83¢ 98¢ $48 $57 +$9 (+18%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 82¢ 84¢ $42 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+25%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? No 20¢ 26¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+31%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 51¢ 58¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? No 100¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $42 −$24 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$9 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$32 -35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $112 −$10 -8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $106 −$14 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-19? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 11-17? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunderbolt T10 League: Delhi Champions vs Tamilnadu Titans Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $147 Week of April 1 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Morgan Wallen be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 -5%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $6 +$1 +11%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariana Isabel Higuita Barraza vs Michaela Bay Jun 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 03 $6 $0 +4%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Kempen/Klepac Jun 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $6 $0 +8%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +3%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 30 $10 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $6 $0 +6%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 18 - May 24 be greater May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Evanilson be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier L May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $7 $0 +5%
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 23? May 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +5%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: France vs Switzerland May 22 $6 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% +$33
tech 6% +$5
crypto 5% +$59
weather 3% −$6
culture 2% −$46
sports 0% −$88
politics 0% +$2
world 0% −$9
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 27m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 27m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $19 38m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $42 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 20¢ $6 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 6h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 6h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 6h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 6h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 6h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $6 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $39 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $49 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 20h
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 21h
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 21h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 22h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 83¢ $50 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 29h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $3 38h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 85¢ $48 38h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 66¢ $2 38h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 66¢ $6 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -30.7% -37.3% 36% 6% -26.7%
≤30d 64 -14.6% -22.8% 59% 6% -13.4%
≤90d 190 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 5% -9.9%
all 473 -0.9% -10.3% 85% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.37 · official $155.37 (match) · 1357 history records