Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8227…013d other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,843 (-8%) realized −$28,936 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 39L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,513per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,007est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,527
7 days−$14,428
14 days−$14,428
30 days−$14,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$7,962
other 34% −$6,355
crypto 23% −$14,889
world 1% −$90
weather 0% −$799
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +21.4% +9.8% 44% 30% -12.2%
≤30d 44 +20.9% +9.4% 45% 30% -12.2%
≤90d 44 +20.9% +9.4% 45% 30% -12.2%
all 77 +5.9% -4.2% 49% 23% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 23% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 9% -23.7%
15% -21.7% 6% -31.1%
20% -29.4% 4% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$6,888) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$694 vs −$1,488 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$28,936
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,007
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage374d
Avg bet$4,513
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $500 $593 +$93 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,038 +$3,503 +172%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $559 −$545 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,986 −$1,386 -35%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,030 −$2,916 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9,659 −$9,500 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,776 −$2,326 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15,943 +$857 +5%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $4,105 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,908 +$227 +12%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,005 −$2,000 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$95 -92%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $20,297 −$772 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $867 −$127 -15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15,355 +$1,557 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$50 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13,119 +$2,184 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,014 −$906 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $606 −$217 -36%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,987 +$227 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10,033 +$1,180 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$39 -39%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9,267 +$2,878 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,917 −$1,349 -34%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $8,512 +$1,083 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $11,147 −$10,590 -95%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $9,547 +$1,542 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24,511 −$1,003 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10,093 −$1,558 -15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,388 +$860 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,638 +$1,574 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9,312 +$1,275 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,227 +$2,073 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7,571 +$429 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6,390 +$1,109 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $94 +$10 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5,553 +$1,018 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,019 +$440 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $241 −$210 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 14 $11,958 −$10,981 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 14 $10,918 +$288 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 14 $2,502 +$125 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 14 $2,542 −$40 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 14 $4,567 −$4,567 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 14 $4,285 +$281 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 51m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,502 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $559 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,038 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $2,600 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,972 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,014 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $875 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $9,150 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $723 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $745 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,539 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $904 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $339 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $467 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $977 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,896 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,900 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.41 · official $592.95 (match) · 689 history records