Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8227…2432 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-5%) realized −$140 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$207
sports 34% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.5% -17.3% 50% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 22 -8.5% -17.3% 50% 50% -14.5%
≤90d 22 -8.5% -17.3% 50% 50% -14.5%
all 22 -8.5% -17.3% 50% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 50% -14.5%
10% -25.2% 50% -22.7%
15% -32.4% 45% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 27% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$65 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 92¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+65%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $50 −$14 -29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $193 +$154 +80%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $71 +$34 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $65 +$27 +41%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$86 -85%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 +$27 +33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $174 −$128 -73%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$77 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$27 -89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$37 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$110 -57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$53 -52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 23m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 23m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 50¢ $36 32m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 46m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over $15 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $65 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $61 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $107 26h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $41 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.61 · official $377.53 (match) · 65 history records