Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x822a…23a0 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,866 (-20%) realized −$2,755 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$1,774
14 days−$1,325
30 days−$1,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$5,511
sports 20% +$3,727
culture 8% −$1,190
crypto 5% +$514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -27.3% -34.2% 30% 30% -75.2%
≤30d 41 +17.4% +6.2% 29% 29% -18.8%
≤90d 41 +17.4% +6.2% 29% 29% -18.8%
all 46 +4.6% -5.4% 26% 26% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 26% -26.5%
10% -14.4% 26% -33.5%
15% -22.7% 24% -40.0%
20% -30.3% 22% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +51% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$601 vs −$281 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,235
Realized−$2,755
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage170d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $949 $925 −$24 (-3%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $316 $310 −$6 (-2%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $82 $1 −$81 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $70 −$68 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $39 +$92 +238%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $93 −$24 -25%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $111 +$155 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $157 −$154 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $182 +$91 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,618 −$1,603 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $390 +$274 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $329 −$321 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $198 −$193 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $197 −$192 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $657 −$641 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $72 +$196 +272%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $262 −$149 -57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $390 −$272 -70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$128 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $526 −$513 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $557 +$392 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $118 +$523 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $225 −$220 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $388 −$385 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $262 −$255 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $261 −$255 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $236 −$230 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,317 −$1,281 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 +$458 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $262 +$4,374 +1668%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $133 −$130 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $262 −$255 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $279 +$240 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $251 −$245 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $259 +$334 +129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $261 −$255 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Will "The Girl in the Bubble - Wicked: For Good" win Best Original Son Feb 01 $130 −$130 -100%
Will "No Place Like Home - Wicked: For Good" win Best Original Song - Jan 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Will "Golden - KPop Demon Hunters" win Best Original Song - Motion Pic Jan 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $323 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $960 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $70 23h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $65 23h
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 31h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $73 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 14¢ $65 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $93 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $92 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $39 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $157 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $111 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,618 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $329 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $131 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $138 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $390 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $198 8d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $197 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $657 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $65 9d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $269 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $103 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,235.34 · official $1,235.34 (match) · 72 history records