Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
82 0x8232…1076 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+13%) realized +$42 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$4
world 37% +$45
sports 8% +$1
other 3% −$9
crypto 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -45.4% -50.6% 50% 25% -17.3%
≤90d 11 +23.0% +11.3% 45% 36% +16.9%
all 12 +30.9% +18.4% 50% 42% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 42% +19.3%
10% +7.1% 33% +7.9%
15% -3.3% 33% -2.5%
20% -12.7% 33% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage116d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 58¢ 63¢ $63 $68 +$4 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 80¢ $53 $51 −$3 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 58¢ 57¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Julia Stamatova vs Klara Vaja Jun 04 $8 −$8 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $29 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap May 07 $9 +$55 +614%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Flyers vs. Jets Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 11 $8 +$11 +127%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10AM ET Mar 26 $8 +$8 +93%
Penguins vs. Rangers Mar 07 $4 +$5 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.24 · official $188.24 (match) · 137 history records