Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x8232…0ad1
politics · 314 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$658 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$580 · open +$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge
Net worth$1,016
Realized+$580
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses232 / 67
Open positions15
Markets (closed)299 / 314
History coverage610d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 15 History 299 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $503 $574 +$70 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $126 $133 +$7 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 84¢ $97 $103 +$6 (+6%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 95¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $53 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 61¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-29%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 87¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump praise Karoline Leavitt by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $29 +$4 +14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 01 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +7%
US bank failure by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$4 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $351 +$20 +6%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026? May 30 $304 +$7 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $28 −$26 -93%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 29 $10 −$4 -44%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before August? May 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? May 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? May 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will OpenAI accuse Microsoft of violating antitrust before August? May 14 $2 $0 +18%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? May 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first we May 14 $3 $0 +5%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? May 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? May 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $4 −$2 -49%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 10 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 13 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of Jul 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jul 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks? Jul 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July? Jul 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jul 13 $9 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jul 13 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Iranian officials visit the White House in June? Jul 13 $24 +$2 +6%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jul 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before July? Jul 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15? Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  23? Jun 24 $112 +$25 +23%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 24 $499 +$71 +14%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jun 23 $70 −$46 -66%
Trump Mobile smartphone released before September? Jun 23 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% +$398
other 25% +$216
world 14% +$71
sports 3% −$40
crypto 1% −$11
tech 1% +$15
culture 0% +$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $5 1h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $30 3d
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 7d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $2 8d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 95¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 86¢ $10 8d
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 9d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 9d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 9d
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 9d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 9d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 9d
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 94¢ $5 9d
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 87¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 94¢ $20 10d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 94¢ $30 10d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 10d
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $20 10d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.1% +4.1% 100% 50% +0.5%
≤30d 30 +0.3% -9.3% 87% 40% -8.8%
≤90d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 79% 36% -9.1%
all 299 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 29% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 29% -2.9%
10% -20.3% 15% -12.2%
15% -28.0% 7% -20.7%
20% -35.0% 5% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,015.85 · official $1,015.85 (match) · 969 history records