Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x8233…36d5 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,137 (+47%) realized +$2,029 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$387
14 days+$393
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$795
politics 30% +$930
sports 22% +$293
crypto 2% +$98
world 0% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 45% +12.6%
≤30d 49 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 43% +11.2%
≤90d 49 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 43% +11.2%
all 56 -0.4% -9.8% 46% 41% +38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 41% +38.4%
10% -18.5% 38% +25.2%
15% -26.4% 34% +13.1%
20% -33.6% 25% +2.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$26 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.72 per $1 lost it wins $3.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$2,029
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage611d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 32¢ 69¢ $90 $198 +$108 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $71 +$54 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $191 −$28 -15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $81 +$3 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$119 +232%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 +$133 +650%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 −$39 -64%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -61%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $168 −$98 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$60 +118%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $92 +$7 +7%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $97 −$96 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$146 +286%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $111 +$60 +54%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$115 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 05 $603 +$965 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 12m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 27m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 79¢ $103 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 38¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $92 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 47¢ $58 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $39 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $47 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $109 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 43¢ $85 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $45 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 9h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $83 30h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.04 · official $198.07 (match) · 152 history records