Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8236…f62b other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$8
politics 31% −$5
tech 9% +$36
economics 5% −$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 16% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +1.9% -7.8% 29% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -16.6% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage212d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $109 +$3 +2%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $985 −$3 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $993 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $558 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $560 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 17 $93 −$1 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $93 +$1 +1%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $182 +$4 +2%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $51 +$3 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 12 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $62 +$3 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $41 +$21 +51%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $39 +$2 +5%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $110 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $111 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $109 28d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $984 35d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $985 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $982 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $985 35d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $984 35d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $986 35d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $988 35d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $990 35d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $991 35d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $993 35d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $992 35d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $993 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 58d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $557 64d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $558 64d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $558 64d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 64d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $558 64d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $558 64d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $558 64d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 99¢ $559 64d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $559 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.94 · official $109.94 (match) · 83 history records