trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 33% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 29 | +1.0% | -8.7% | 31% | 3% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 3% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 3% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 65¢ | 66¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 19 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Dec 11 | $9 | +$2 | +24% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | Nov 28 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 26 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? | Oct 26 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Oct 26 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 25 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66? | Oct 24 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 24 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 23 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 19 | $27 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Sep 27 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? | Sep 27 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 27 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Sep 26 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Sep 26 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 25 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Sep 24 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 24 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? | Sep 24 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | Sep 24 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 23 | $28 | $0 | -1% |