Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

82 0x8238…5b82 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-20.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-12.3%	-20.7%	50%	50%	-18.4%
≤30d	4	-12.3%	-20.7%	50%	50%	-18.4%
≤90d	4	-12.3%	-20.7%	50%	50%	-18.4%
all	4	-12.3%	-20.7%	50%	50%	-18.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.7%	50%	-18.4%
10%	-28.3%	50%	-26.2%
15%	-35.2%	25%	-33.3%
20%	-41.6%	25%	-39.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized−$8

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$90	$91	+$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	51¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$58	−$58	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$43	+$37	+86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$11	−$7	-70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$39	+$13	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$95	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$26	1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$3	17h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	26¢	$11	17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$58	18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$39	26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$43	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.32 · official $116.32 (match) · 10 history records