Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8239…fa3d crypto 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-8%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%94W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$97
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$35
sports 8% −$2
other 4% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -58.4% -62.3% 22% 21% -62.7%
≤30d 113 -43.9% -49.2% 29% 27% -53.4%
≤90d 113 -43.9% -49.2% 29% 27% -53.4%
all 233 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 39% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 39% -18.7%
10% -23.8% 33% -26.4%
15% -31.1% 30% -33.5%
20% -37.9% 24% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses94 / 139
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)233 / 237
History coverage138d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 24m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 25m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 25m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $1 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 45¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.91 (match) · 554 history records