Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x8240…cbfa other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 750d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,473 (-8%) realized −$1,403 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%81W / 73L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$270
14 days−$299
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,129
sports 33% −$204
crypto 12% −$143
politics 5% −$37
culture 3% −$40
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 42% -19.7%
≤30d 21 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 43% -20.1%
≤90d 58 -59.8% -63.7% 17% 17% -46.6%
all 154 -16.8% -24.8% 53% 46% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 46% -17.0%
10% -32.0% 36% -25.0%
15% -38.5% 27% -32.2%
20% -44.6% 17% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$89 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

750d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$1,403
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions4
Markets (closed)154 / 158
History coverage750d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+9%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 21¢ 12¢ $155 $85 −$70 (-45%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 32¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$278 +136%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$10 -14%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 +$124 +174%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 +$268 +176%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $49 +$50 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $106 +$120 +113%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 22 $13 −$12 -94%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 11 $21 +$70 +331%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 11? Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 29? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 6? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $159 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 42¢ $98 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $481 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 24h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $51 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $102 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 1¢ $10 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $51 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 95¢ $195 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $71 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 47h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $102 47h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 92¢ $422 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $102 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $122 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $51 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 85¢ $227 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $49 5d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $41 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $106 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $204 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.46 · official $355.48 (match) · 499 history records