Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x8246…7883 other 114 markets active 6d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$11
politics 30% −$8
sports 15% +$6
crypto 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 113 -0.4% -9.8% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage122d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $296 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 07 $42 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $426 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $440 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 06 $242 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $227 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $251 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $280 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $472 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 28d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $215 30d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $215 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $42 49d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 58d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 59d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $226 59d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $226 59d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $217 59d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $217 59d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 60d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 60d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 60d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $221 61d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $270 61d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $270 61d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 61d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 61d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 61d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 62d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 62d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $197 62d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $205 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.00 · official $28.00 (match) · 337 history records