Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8247…d8cc culture 307 markets active 4h ago coverage 547d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 546d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77,108 (+10%) realized +$77,094 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate63%190W / 111L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$2,594per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$9,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days+$183
14 days+$877
30 days+$737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 35% +$8,873
other 34% +$37,799
world 21% +$707
politics 7% +$1,023
crypto 3% +$1,166
weather 0% +$29
tech 0% +$37
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.1% +2.3% 75% 50% +9.9%
≤30d 31 -19.6% -27.3% 55% 19% -7.4%
≤90d 96 -8.6% -17.3% 68% 21% -8.8%
all 301 +3.3% -6.5% 63% 25% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 25% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 16% -12.9%
15% -23.6% 12% -21.3%
20% -31.1% 10% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$3,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$206 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$9,262
Realized+$77,094
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses190 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)301 / 307
History coverage547d ⚠
Avg bet$2,594
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $7,904 $7,992 +$88 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 90¢ $395 $452 +$58 (+15%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $370 $375 +$5 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ 28¢ $180 $285 +$105 (+58%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 64¢ 16¢ $320 $80 −$240 (-75%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 79¢ 78¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $127 −$101 -80%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $249 +$169 +68%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 15 $303 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $175 +$109 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $2,186 +$164 +8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $2,121 +$454 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $405 +$16 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$11 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6,013 −$36 -1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 09 $357 +$73 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,867 +$18 +0%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $233 +$21 +9%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $17 −$6 -35%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 06 $207 −$8 -4%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $370 +$125 +34%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $639 −$51 -8%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? Jun 02 $629 +$15 +2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $7,276 +$132 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,932 +$190 +10%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $399 −$102 -26%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $188 −$46 -24%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 30 $11 −$11 -95%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 30 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $6,122 +$36 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $5,619 +$48 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $920 +$392 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? May 27 $1,510 +$16 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $324 −$88 -27%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 22 $820 −$713 -87%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 48 million views on day 3? May 21 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 19 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 40 million views on day 2 May 19 $6,720 +$8 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 18 $10,067 +$40 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 16 $291 +$12 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9,501 +$199 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $8,957 +$34 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $1,022 +$3 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m May 12 $8,428 +$9 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 10 $75 −$11 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 10 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 10 $467 +$15 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 10 $3,358 +$48 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $171 −$77 -45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 04 $3,039 +$138 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 04 $4,842 +$256 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $50 +$21 +42%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 03 $5,562 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $517 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $25 4h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $404 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 25¢ $127 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $395 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $2,182 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY No 98¢ $303 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $387 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $40 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $195 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $243 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $61 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $189 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $16 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $8 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $4 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $7 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $284 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 81¢ $79 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 80¢ $116 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 79¢ $245 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $47 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $7 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $11 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $194 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $5 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $68 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $95 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $4 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 89¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,261.89 · official $9,262.49 (match) · 3500 history records