Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x824b…8386 sports 443 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$868 (-1%) realized −$723 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%380W / 56L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$800est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$898
7 days+$1,906
14 days−$2,170
30 days−$1,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,694
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 19% -6.7%
≤30d 436 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 23% -10.5%
≤90d 436 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 23% -10.5%
all 436 -0.9% -10.3% 87% 23% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 23% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 12% -19.1%
15% -26.7% 6% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$311 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,435
Realized−$723
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses380 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$800
Open positions7
Markets (closed)436 / 443
History coverage18d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 436 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ 100¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 97¢ 94¢ $400 $384 −$16 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 99¢ 100¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Ivory 99¢ 56¢ $320 $183 −$137 (-43%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ 100¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Saigon Warriors 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $301 +$32 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$19 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $300 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $340 +$9 +3%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $300 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $301 +$19 +6%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,099 +$226 +21%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 15 $300 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $410 +$4 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $501 +$52 +10%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $279 +$23 +8%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $400 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $161 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $605 +$150 +25%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $301 +$29 +10%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $400 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $806 +$121 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $503 +$71 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$136 +45%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $403 −$164 -41%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $300 +$12 +4%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Metizport (+1.5) Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$16 +8%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $408 −$408 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,187 +$202 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $506 −$487 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $804 +$897 +112%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $606 −$169 -28%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Gen.G (+2.5) Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $403 +$130 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $402 +$62 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 99¢ $100 11m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $100 13m
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 98¢ $220 14m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $300 17m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 97¢ $333 59m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 99¢ $300 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY Saigon Warriors 98¢ $40 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 87¢ $301 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 99¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 97¢ $300 3h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $70 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $400 4h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 99¢ $300 4h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $60 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 94¢ $301 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ $100 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $87 5h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $300 5h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play BUY Marsborne 98¢ $300 13h
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 13h
Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Even 99¢ $4 13h
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 99¢ $4 14h
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $4 14h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $4 14h
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $4 14h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $4 14h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) BUY LYON 100¢ $40 14h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 93¢ $100 14h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 99¢ $200 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,434.81 · official $1,434.84 (match) · 1107 history records