Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x824c…e309 crypto 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,121 (-13%) realized −$3,109 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%279W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$382
7 days−$202
14 days−$649
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$2,489
other 9% −$596
sports 4% −$60
world 4% −$478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 51% -15.6%
≤30d 325 +3.1% -6.7% 58% 54% -11.8%
≤90d 471 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 49% -19.5%
all 523 -7.1% -15.9% 53% 47% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 47% -23.4%
10% -24.0% 42% -30.7%
15% -31.3% 35% -37.4%
20% -38.0% 28% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$3,109
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses279 / 244
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)523 / 524
History coverage144d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Down 53¢ 42¢ $54 $42 −$12 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$3 -8%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 +$18 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$21 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $252 −$229 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $99 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $301 +$61 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $155 −$133 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $564 −$70 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $153 +$58 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$89 +242%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$41 +101%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $124 −$122 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$19 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $259 +$86 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $298 +$307 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $55 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $55 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $37 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $37 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $24 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $252 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $48 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $47 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $48 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $23 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $41 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 1042 history records