Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x824f…72b2 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$146 (+21%) realized +$154 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days+$9
14 days−$58
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$82
world 11% +$24
crypto 1% −$3
tech 1% −$5
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +141.0% +118.0% 75% 75% -8.1%
≤30d 11 +16.5% +5.4% 36% 36% -18.6%
≤90d 11 +16.5% +5.4% 36% 36% -18.6%
all 11 +16.5% +5.4% 36% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 36% -18.6%
10% -4.7% 36% -26.4%
15% -13.9% 36% -33.5%
20% -22.3% 27% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$40 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $79 $71 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $284 −$204 -72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $195 +$89 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$40 +73%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$84 +517%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.45 · official $74.93 · 19 history records