Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x824f…e635 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,453 (-14%) realized −$1,427 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$252
7 days−$668
14 days−$840
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1,087
crypto 13% +$265
sports 11% −$712
other 10% −$204
finance 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.8% -36.5% 35% 35% -43.7%
≤30d 32 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 31% -10.9%
≤90d 40 -8.5% -17.2% 32% 30% -7.0%
all 51 -10.0% -18.6% 27% 25% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 25% -23.4%
10% -26.4% 25% -30.8%
15% -33.5% 25% -37.4%
20% -40.0% 20% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$127 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$1,427
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage158d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 30¢ 30¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 49¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $31 $4 −$27 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 −$1 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $84 +$56 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $233 −$231 -99%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $76 −$76 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $43 +$57 +132%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $72 +$48 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$86 +98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$72 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $325 −$311 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 −$48 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 +$17 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $514 −$125 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $211 −$79 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $37 +$363 +977%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 05 $77 −$15 -20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $427 −$202 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $1,002 +$1,037 +104%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $66 +$7 +10%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $43 −$27 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Mar 31 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 29 $966 +$391 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 29 $200 −$11 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 27 $200 +$82 +41%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $150 +$635 +425%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $587 −$202 -34%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 24 $203 −$54 -26%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $568 −$568 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $648 −$493 -76%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $418 −$36 -9%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $631 −$631 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $356 −$72 -20%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $325 −$227 -70%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $316 −$93 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $12 45m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $61 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $11 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $24 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $27 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $18 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $84 6h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $48 6h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $26 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $72 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $61 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.77 · official $200.77 (match) · 401 history records