Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8251…7a43 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$373 (-21%) realized −$361 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$372
other 6% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -42.3% -47.8% 37% 37% -40.2%
≤30d 21 -47.8% -52.8% 33% 33% -48.0%
≤90d 21 -47.8% -52.8% 33% 33% -48.0%
all 28 -40.3% -46.0% 39% 36% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 36% -32.8%
10% -51.2% 21% -39.2%
15% -55.9% 21% -45.1%
20% -60.2% 18% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$361
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage111d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$24 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$19 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 07 $30 −$11 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 07 $273 −$273 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 07 $419 +$93 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 07 $99 +$130 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 07 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 07 $169 +$36 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 07 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.50 · official $11.50 (match) · 275 history records