Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
82 0x8255…bf6e other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-25%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$64
sports 16% +$2
crypto 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 43% -53.9%
≤30d 7 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 43% -53.9%
≤90d 7 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 43% -53.9%
all 7 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 43% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 43% -53.9%
10% -29.4% 14% -58.3%
15% -36.2% 14% -62.3%
20% -42.5% 14% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 50m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 85¢ $26 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 77¢ $24 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.96 · official $24.96 (match) · 13 history records