Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8255…cba9 sports 672 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$701 (+4%) realized +$706 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%380W / 340L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day70.2pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$69
14 days+$71
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$354
other 26% +$233
world 3% +$100
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -28.8% -35.6% 51% 32% -8.7%
≤30d 665 -14.7% -22.8% 53% 39% -10.1%
≤90d 720 -12.5% -20.9% 53% 39% -9.1%
all 720 -12.5% -20.9% 53% 39% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 39% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 30% -17.8%
15% -35.3% 22% -25.7%
20% -41.7% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$867
Realized+$706
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses380 / 340
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions30
Markets (closed)720 / 672
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 67¢ 68¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? No 82¢ 81¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 55¢ 56¢ $83 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jordan 38¢ 36¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 39¢ 42¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+9%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 95¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Panama 57¢ 57¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? No 81¢ 80¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Colombia 89¢ 90¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? No 95¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Panama 35¢ 34¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Colombia 75¢ 76¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Austria leading at halftime? No 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Under 77¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-3.5) DR Congo 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 29? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 1 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 23? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Jun 27 $8 −$12 -145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Jun 27 $2 −$3 -147%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 1? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $12 −$13 -106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $86,000 on November 23? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 1 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -102%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 November 24-30? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 25? Jun 27 $2 −$7 -329%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 29? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 1? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 23? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaume Munar Jun 27 $18 −$18 -101%
Bordeaux: Aleksandar Vukic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 2? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 28? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $3 −$5 -163%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 24? Jun 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 2 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 2? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY No 99¢ $13 3m
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5m
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 39¢ $2 10m
Spread: Uzbekistan (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $3 20m
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 72¢ $3 30m
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY No 95¢ $5 40m
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY No 95¢ $8 43m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 58¢ $5 45m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $42 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $84 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $39 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 67¢ $57 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $2 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $1 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $2 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $10 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Panama 57¢ $2 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $71 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $17 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.00 · official $866.75 (match) · 3500 history records