Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x825c…18e7 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$539per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$9
other 30% −$8
tech 17% −$2
crypto 6% −$5
world 6% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$969) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage93d
Avg bet$539
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 28 $1,024 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $964 $0 +0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $967 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $935 −$2 -0%
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 26 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi May 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO May 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 09 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $995 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 09 $1,001 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 05 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 04 $956 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $939 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Mar 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1,021 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $969 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $34 2h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $710 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $237 2h
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $948 2h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 19h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $990 19h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 19h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $937 19h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 19h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $965 20h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 20h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 20h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $953 20h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 20h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 20h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 21h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $961 21h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $933 2d
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 2d
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $714 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records