Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x825d…80e8 crypto 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$555 (-4%) realized −$763 · open +$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%99W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$137
14 days−$324
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$516
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -37.3% -43.3% 27% 27% -14.5%
≤30d 62 -13.8% -22.0% 34% 32% -14.0%
≤90d 62 -13.8% -22.0% 34% 32% -14.0%
all 248 -18.3% -26.1% 40% 38% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 38% -15.1%
10% -33.2% 37% -23.3%
15% -39.6% 32% -30.7%
20% -45.5% 25% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$39 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$879
Realized−$763
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses99 / 149
Open positions3
Markets (closed)248 / 251
History coverage133d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 16¢ 44¢ $224 $612 +$389 (+174%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $217 $190 −$27 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $230 $76 −$154 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $132 −$127 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $333 +$833 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $406 −$385 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $361 −$350 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $473 +$537 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $96 −$90 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $461 −$449 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $65 +$99 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $78 −$74 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $54 −$51 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $179 +$17 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $233 −$226 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $182 −$172 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $148 +$410 +278%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $154 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $69 +$61 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $210 +$145 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $22 −$21 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $105 +$60 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $28 +$109 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $27 −$26 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $61 +$51 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $156 +$164 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $107 −$101 -94%
Solana Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $54 −$51 -95%
XRP Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 +$10 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $106 +$354 +335%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $145 −$142 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $106 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $27 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 19¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 19¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $93 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 16¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $11 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $104 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $27 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 71¢ $1,166 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 19¢ $37 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 21¢ $32 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $67 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $242 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 18¢ $211 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $316 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,009 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.63 · official $852.52 · 607 history records