Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x825f…0d95 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-29%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$9
crypto 31% −$19
sports 21% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.7% -39.2% 50% 38% -43.5%
≤30d 8 -32.7% -39.2% 50% 38% -43.5%
≤90d 8 -32.7% -39.2% 50% 38% -43.5%
all 8 -32.7% -39.2% 50% 38% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 38% -43.5%
10% -45.0% 38% -48.9%
15% -50.3% 12% -53.8%
20% -55.2% 12% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $3 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 15h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $13 26h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $10 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records