Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x8260…a14b other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$35,694 (+303%) realized +$35,759 · open −$65
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$120
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$37,522
sports 21% −$1,241
other 15% −$616
politics 5% +$336
crypto 2% −$200
economics 1% −$100
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -35.1% -41.3% 50% 50% -20.4%
≤30d 5 -14.6% -22.7% 60% 60% -5.9%
≤90d 28 +9.2% -1.2% 39% 39% +286.2%
all 28 +9.2% -1.2% 39% 39% +286.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 39% +286.2%
10% -10.6% 36% +249.3%
15% -19.3% 21% +215.5%
20% -27.2% 14% +184.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +327% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +327% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,501 vs −$163 · ×21.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.86 per $1 lost it wins $13.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$735
Realized+$35,759
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage84d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $200 $147 −$53 (-27%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $503 +$100 +20%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 19 $253 +$171 +67%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 04 $1,000 +$263 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 22 $1,000 +$260 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Apr 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Apr 13 $20 +$6 +29%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 13 $50 +$108 +216%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $50 +$24 +48%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 11 $1,000 −$975 -98%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 11 $1,000 −$525 -52%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 on April 7? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $3,500 +$36,816 +1052%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $100 +$354 +354%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $1,000 +$333 +33%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
ChatGPT Outage by April 10? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $253 19d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 39¢ $512 56d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 49¢ $50 78d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 77¢ $20 78d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov BUY Makhmudov 18¢ $500 78d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov BUY Makhmudov 18¢ $500 78d
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes $50 79d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $200 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 79¢ $1,000 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 79d
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Mateusz Gamrot 67¢ $50 79d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 31¢ $50 79d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $50 79d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $50 79d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 28¢ $475 79d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 59¢ $1,000 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 59¢ $40,316 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $2,000 83d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $100 83d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $50 83d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 on April 7? BUY Yes $10 83d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 7? BUY Up $10 83d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 83d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes $100 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $735.33 · official $767.68 · 108 history records