Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x8261…a3f1 sports 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43,700 (+7%) realized +$40,180 · open +$3,520
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%197W / 92L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2,276per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Fees−$6,324est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$15,620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$4,695
14 days+$16,711
30 days+$8,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$47,139
other 3% −$1,203
crypto 1% −$84
world 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +30.3% +17.9% 74% 68% -2.0%
≤30d 142 +6.7% -3.5% 69% 56% -7.4%
≤90d 289 +8.0% -2.3% 68% 58% -3.3%
all 289 +8.0% -2.3% 68% 58% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 58% -3.3%
10% -11.6% 39% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here -20.2% 26% -21.0%
20% -28.0% 17% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,915) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$617 vs −$881 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$15,620
Realized+$40,180
Unrealized+$3,520
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses197 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$6,324
Open positions2
Markets (closed)289 / 291
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$2,276
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 62¢ 100¢ $6,625 $10,652 +$4,027 (+61%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,475 $4,968 −$507 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $179 −$155 -87%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 +$97 +93%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $498 +$428 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $959 +$246 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,398 −$621 -44%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $890 +$110 +12%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,560 +$1,247 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $2,105 +$1,782 +85%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,206 +$687 +57%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $521 +$535 +102%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $460 +$540 +117%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $20 +$25 +127%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $500 +$520 +104%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $406 +$15 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $691 +$77 +11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $292 +$307 +105%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,026 +$1,205 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $305 +$215 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,400 −$1,256 -29%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,002 +$1,075 +54%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $726 +$274 +38%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4,048 +$3,115 +77%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $870 +$630 +72%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $7,189 −$489 -7%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,034 −$309 -10%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $2,169 −$1,587 -73%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,064 +$144 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,622 −$1,452 -40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3,215 +$394 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,725 +$500 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,006 −$992 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3,692 −$3,640 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1,637 +$1,024 +63%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $2,652 +$1,029 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3,440 +$632 +18%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $301 −$35 -12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $297 +$8 +3%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $2,448 +$694 +28%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $1,321 +$1,123 +85%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,624 +$231 +9%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $4,725 +$1,174 +25%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $338 +$162 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $3,838 +$908 +24%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $1,850 −$1,375 -74%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$83 -81%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,015 +$985 +97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $2,915 +$2,835 +97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $1,905 −$185 -10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $3,400 +$1,044 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 83¢ $2,503 45m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $875 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $705 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $695 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $705 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $4,192 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 27¢ $306 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 27¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 27¢ $291 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 79¢ $3,019 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 72¢ $1,842 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 59¢ $508 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 56¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 56¢ $152 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 56¢ $85 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $730 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 6¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $179 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,620.34 · official $15,620.34 (match) · 3500 history records